Early Leaders Are Poor Finishers In US Sports, So Don't 'Back The Pack'

Green Bay's blistering start suggests a repeat for Super Bowl XLVI... or does it?

In terms of history, there's a strong case to be made for the Green Bay Packers winning Super Bowl XLVI and repeating their success of 12 months ago.

Compared to the Champions League - our humble version of the beautiful game - the notion of back-to-back winners in the NFL isn't uncommon.

We've not seen consecutive winners of Europe's premier football competition since AC Milan in the early 1990's.

However we find that the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys and the 49ers of San Francisco have all achieved this feat during the same time period.

Go back further and you'll see that Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins have also doubled-up since the first Super Bowl was contested back in 1967.

Oh yes... and that first NFL decider was won by the Green Bay Packers. Who then won it again the following year in 1968!

That's why on the back of an impressive start to the 2011/12 NFL Season the Packers are trading as short as 5/2 to follow-up their 31-25 win over Pittsburgh at Cowboys Stadium in February.

Curse of the No.1 seeds

No, the problem we have with the team from Lambeau Field is that despite their undoubted talent and ability, coach Mike McCarthy and the current holders of the Vince Lombardi Trophy might suffer from No.1 status in the play-offs.

OK, it's still early in the season and many matches need to be played before the play-offs are finalised.

Green Bay's Nick Collins celebrates his touchdown in Super Bowl XLV

However, as we've said before (Discover Why The 2011/12 NFL Season Promises Another Big-Priced Winner!) being the top side in the regular season is no guarantee of success.

Even if the Packers go 16-0 between now and January... we'd still take them on for the Super Bowl.

Remember, only two No.1 ranked teams (Patriots '03 and Saints '09) have won the 'Big One' in the last 10 years.

It's the nature of US sport... unreliable form!

And why does this happen? As we know, it's because America loves its play-offs, its winner-takes-all TV spectaculars.

It's the Premier League but with a mini FA Cup tacked on the end.

Teams that do consistently well during the regular season can have an offday in the knockout stages (even with homefield advantage).

St Louis Cardinals won Baseball's World Series despite being underdogs throught the season

Same goes for other US team sports.. who won NHL's Stanley Cup this year? It was the Boston Bruins, ranked No.3 in the Eastern Conference.

Baseball's World Series this year was won by the St. Louis Cardinals who were actually the lowest ranked franchise from the National League to make the play-offs.

What about the NBA? Same again. Here the Dallas Mavericks won the 2010/11 NBA Title after finishing No.3 in the Western Conference.

Why so?

Whether it's pressure, weight of expectation, bad luck or simply the law of averages... being the No.1 seed in US play-offs isn't a good position to be.

But ask yourself this. In a horse race, for example, the winner tends to be one that comes from off the pace. Not the leader from the moment the stalls open.

Golf tournament successes are rarely wire-to-wire affairs. The peloton in the Tour de France always seems to catch the breakaway leader.

The conclusion is simple, therefore, don't hit the front too early and don't (if you're a backer) lump on the first team who makes a break for it. Bide your time.

Back the Pack at 5/2? No thanks.

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